Will Black Swan Events Derail the FED & CRE Outlook

The Impact of Recent Events on the U.S. Economy ​

Recent Global Events Are Creating Economic Pressures ​

• Hurricane Helene struck the southeastern U.S. in late September, and may become one of the costliest disasters in history ​

• Military escalations in the Middle East are lifting oil prices, leading to inflation concerns ​

• Elevated oil prices historically precede economic downturns ​

The ILA Port Strike Disrupts U.S. Supply Chains​

• U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers began a strike on October 1st, halting inbound and outbound shipping at 36 ports ​

• Weekly economic losses are estimated between $4 billion and $7 billion, impacting various industries ​

• The strike affects U.S. imports and exports, risking domestic food and manufacturing supply chains ​

Port Strike Could Complicate Fed Decisions And Impact CRE ​

• The Fed may face a tough choice between lowering rates to prevent a recession or holding them steady to keep inflation under control ​

• A prolonged dockworker strike could shift container traffic to the West Coast, boosting industrial space demand in certain regions ​

GDP as of April 2024; Export value as of 2023
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, World Population Review, IMF, CIA ​

​​Watch Video Below: