Why Investors Should Look Below the Surface
How Investors Find Opportunities by Looking past Macro Trends
Data Drives Decision Making
Exceptional population growth is occurring in the Sun Belt and nearby states, boosting CRE performance
As a result, a heightened portion of CRE investment and development is targeting these areas
Macro-Trends Are Important But Not The Whole Picture
Strong demographics boost CRE demand in the Sunbelt, but fundamentals vary from submarket to submarket
Investors should remember to dig under the surface when making decisions even if macro data looks strong
The Best Areas In Hard-Hit Metros Record Strong Gains
Even in San Francisco there are submarkets, like North San Mateo County, where office vacancy is more than 1,500 bps below the metro average
Metros recording weaker positive trends will often surprise investors that look beyond market level data
*Five-year period: 2023 to 2027
Bubble size correlates to absolute population change
Forecast using Moody’s baseline scenario as of May 2023
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics