Three Factors Driving Investor Uncertainty
What Factors Are Driving Uncertainty in CRE Markets?
Prolonged Inflation and Rate Hikes Present Recession Risk
Inflation and aggressive fed rate hikes have eased, making a 25 bps rate hike likely at the Feb. 1 meeting
Although recession risk has moderated, roughly 50% of economists still expect a recession during 2023
Despite Tech Layoffs, Labor Market Still Exceptionally Tight
Attention grabbing headlines surrounding layoffs at Microsoft, Google, and others can foster uncertainty, but the unemployment rate remains at a 50-year low
Overall, the U.S. economy added nearly 225,000 new jobs in December, and still has over 10.5M job openings
What This Means For CRE Markets
If the economy can avoid a major recession in 2023, a shift in sentiment could lead to a revival of apartment, retail, and industrial space demand
Underlying data paints a more positive picture than some of the sensationalist media coverage
*Unemployed through December; Job openings through November
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS