Holiday Retail Sales Outlook
THE IMPACT OF SHIFTING LENDING STANDARDS ON CRE MARKETS
Forecasts Predicting Record Breaking Holiday Season
ICSC and NRF are both anticipating 2023 holiday retail sales to rise between 3% and 4% over last year
When inflation-adjusting this data, retail sales expectations this season are the highest on record
Consumers Still Have Spending Capacity
The economy has added 2.9 million workers over the last year, while disposable income has also increased
This adds a tailwind for retail and industrial CRE space demand as businesses stage for increased consumption
Economic Outlook Still Solid
With the government postponing the budget deadline to January/February, and the Fed unlikely to raise rates, the 2024 economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic
The economist consensus favors slow but positive growth through 2024
* Forecast
Holiday Sales Include Non-Seasonally Adjusted Core Retail Sales for November and December
Excludes Auto, Gasoline and Restaurant Sales
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, National Retail Federation