How New Immigration Policies Could Influence CRE

Written By Christian Desnoes

How New Immigration Policies Could Impact the CRE Landscape ​

New Immigration Policies Could Reshape The Labor Market ​

  • Restrictive policies during Trump’s first term led to declining legal immigration, falling from 1 million annually in 2015-2016 to 570,000 by 2019​

  • Reduced immigration intensified labor shortages, driving wage growth and inflation.​

  • A similar approach under the new administration could exacerbate labor shortages, with broad economic impacts ​

Key Industries May Face Heightened Operational Challenges ​

  • Sectors reliant on foreign-born workers — like agriculture and construction — could experience labor supply shortages​

  • Service-oriented sectors — such as hospitality, food services and health care, are likely to see rising operational costs ​

Commercial Real Estate Faces Increased Inflationary Risk ​

  • Rising development and operating costs could weigh on property performance, particularly in retail, hospitality, and senior housing.​

  • Higher wage-driven inflation could pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates, keeping the cost of debt capital high​

*Through 3Q; Share of labor force by industry as of 2023​
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS

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Christian Desnoes
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