Durable Retail Sales Positive for CRE

Written By Marc Nicholson

Retail Sales Resilience Supports CRE Performance​

Retail Sales Remain Sound, But Real Growth is Minimal​

  • Retail sales look stronger in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation, growth is modest​

  • The retail sales outlook could be influenced by tariffs and the broader employment market​

Debt Looks Alarming, But Consumers Aren’t Overextended​

  • Credit card, auto, and mortgage debt are all at or near record highs, with total household debt reaching a record $18.4 trillion​

  • But income has been rising, so debt levels as a percentage of income are generally at or below the long-term trend​

Wages and Savings Cushion Spending — For Now​

  • Wages grew 3.9% last year, outpacing inflation​

  • Savings balances at $25.9T, up 4.3% YoY, just below 2021 peak​

  • Consumer sentiment remains a wildcard – will consumers continue to spend or will they save more?​

Adjusted for inflation using core CPI (July 2025 dollars); core retail sales exclude auto and gasoline sales ​
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, BEA​

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Marc Nicholson
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