Where is Distress Risk in Today’s CRE Market

Bar chart showing the wave of office loan maturities coming in 2023, with categories for multifamily, office, industrial, retail, hotel, healthcare, and other, with respective amounts in billions.

What The FED Meeting and Banking News Means For Investors

Federal Reserve Raises Rates But Changes Tune

  • The Federal Reserve once again raised the overnight rate by 25 bps at the May meeting, to 5.00%-5.25%

  • Language in The Fed’s press release suggested the Fed is entering a “wait-and-see” approach as opposed to expecting additional hikes

Regional Banks Still Face Risks As Major Sale Occurs

  • After customers withdrew $100B in Q1, First Republic Bank was seized by regulators and auctioned to JPMorgan Chase

  • 61% of First Republic’s lending was in SF housing, 13% was multifamily and 6% was other CRE

Rate Stability To Aid Lenders and CRE Investors

  • If the Fed stops raising rates, lenders and banks can begin to stabilize their lending standards

  • Long-term demand drivers remain sound for the majority of CRE types

*Through May 04
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve, CME Group

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